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04 Nov 2009 19:31
November 4. Yesterday we had an election. My state narrowly passed an "everything but marriage" domestic partner law, but the big show was in upstate New York. In a district that has not elected a Democrat since 1872, local Republican leaders chose Dede Scozzafava, a mainstream conservative by local standards, to replace the guy Obama picked to be Secretary of the Army. But because she's a liberal on cultural issues (by 1950's standards), the national Republican base was furious, and they recruited a clueless far-righty who doesn't even live in the district to run against her with the Conservative party. Here's a Frank Rich column with more details. You know the Republicans have lost it when Newt Gingrich is the voice of sanity. Gingrich and a few others stood by Scozzafava, but under attack from almost everyone else, she dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat. The result could not have been worse for Republicans: their guy lost, but just barely. Now they smell the meat in the trap, and next year they will run far-right challengers against moderate Republicans everywhere, and drive a wedge through the party.
But it doesn't look good for the Democrats either, because they're in power now and the economy is still collapsing. I'm quite sure Obama will win a second term, because the Republicans are destroying themselves, and whatever you think of Obama as president, he's a brilliant campaigner. The great opportunity and danger comes in 2016. By then, with eight more years of old people dying and young people turning 18, the nation will be solidly socially "liberal", and also more fiscally liberal as the middle class stops identifying as potentially rich and starts identifying as poor. A lefty populist will make a strong run at the presidency, and if he's assassinated, or if he wins and is corrupted by power, America explodes. Right now I'm looking at Alan Grayson, but I expect more people like him will appear.
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