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09 Feb ' 10:00
Greek Deal Brings a Big Yawn from the Market So Far!
Thursday, February 9, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
The headlines earlier this morning were that officials in Greece had failed again in all-night attempts to reach a deal to end the Greek debt crisis. But an hour ago came the report, since confirmed, that an acceptable agreement was indeed hammered out and approved by the Greek parliament.
Wouldn’t you expect that after all this time, and after all those failed meetings and disappointments, that the stock market would explode to the upside if a deal was ever reached?
Or by rallying so strongly since October were markets saying they knew there would eventually be an agreement, and so have it already factored into prices.
The initial reaction by the market so far, a big yawn, seems to indicate it may be the latter situation. Pre-open futures were fractionally negative prior to the report, and an hour after the report have become only fractionally positive.
And that in spite of another positive economic report in the jobs picture, with new unemployment claims declining by 15,000 to 358,000 last week. That was considerably better than the consensus forecasts for 370,000 claims. And the four-week m.a. declined to 366,250.
It does have the talking heads on financial TV hammering at each other with opposing opinions about the situation in the Eurozone again.
Steady Trend Has Calmed Volatility.
Short-term traders have been finding less reason to settle for quick trades in the steady up-trend since mid-December.
The lack of volatility can be seen in this daily bar chart, which rather than just showing the close each day, shows the volatility between each day’s high and low.
The only triple-digit days experienced by the Dow were the first trading day of January, when it closed up 179 points, and the 2nd trading day of February when it closed up 156 points. Otherwise, no volatility, even intraday. The calm before a storm?
Probably as a result of the lack of trading opportunities for short-term traders in the lack of volatility, U.S. trading volume has fallen significantly, with the average trading volume on all exchanges only 6.9 billion shares daily in January. That’s the lowest in a January since 2005, and well below the 9.4 billion average in January 2009, when the market was in the midst of its final leg down to the early March low of the 2007-2009 bear market.
Oh, Oh. Dr. Doom has turned bullish?
There’s an old saying that a bull market doesn’t end until the last bear has capitulated.
Nouriel Roubini, known as Dr. Doom for his long-time bearish doom and gloom outlook, has apparently turned bullish.
Roubini’s director of allocation strategy said on CNBC, “We’re a believer. We’re celebrating. We think the rally has legs.”
In fairness, she did not say the Roubini firm has become a raging long-term bull, as in a reversal from Dr. Doom to Dr. FeelGood, but only that it is positive on the market for the next few months, while expecting real trouble has been delayed to the 2nd half of the year.
No Matter Who You Vote For . . .
Over the years I occasionally get myself in trouble criticizing or praising government actions. If the Democrats happen to be in office at the time and I’m criticizing, I catch it from readers of a Republican persuasion, with accusations of my ‘obvious’ far left leanings. If the Republicans happen to be in office at the time I catch it from readers of a Democrat persuasion, with accusations of my ‘obvious’ far right leanings.
The truth is that my analysis and comments are based on economic or market ramifications of whatever government action I’m looking at, and is not biased in either direction by consideration of which party is in office at the time.
In his current issue, Joe Shaefer, editor of Investor’s Edge, provided the best description of my attitude toward politics I’ve seen.
He quoted the lyrics of an obscure song (by Neil Innes and Vivian Stanshall) that says it all:
“No matter who you vote for, the government always gets in!” Perfectly said.
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’
Note to non-Subscribers: We have updated the sample issue of Street Smart Report to a later issue you might find interesting. Click here to access it.Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter.
The market closed fractionally positive except for the DJ Transports again. Fractional new rally high for Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq. Volume again light, with just 0.76 billion shares traded on the NYSE.
closed up 5 points, or 0.1%. The closed up 0.2%. The closed up 0.2%. The closed up 0.5%. The closed up 0.1%. The closed down 0.5%. The closed up 0.1%.
closed down $12 an ounce at $1,732 an ounce.
closed up $0.60 a barrel at $99.01 a barrel.
U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed up fractionally, 0.1%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up fractionally, 0.1%.
Markets in Europe closed down fractionally again yesterday. The London FTSE closed down 0.3%. The closed down 0.1%. closed down 0.1%.
Asian Markets Were Mixed And Flat Last Night.
The Asia Dow closed down 0.4%.
Among individual markets:
closed down 0.2%. closed up 0.1%. closed down 0.1%. closed up 0.7%. closed down 0.2%. closed down 0.2%. Malaysia closed up 0.6%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.5%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.5%. Thailand closed up 0.1%.
For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access click on the ‘Subscribe’ link below which will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report.
Markets This Morning.
European markets are back up this morning. The FTSE is up 0.6%. Germany’s DAX is up 1.2%. is up 1.0%
Oil is up $.94 a barrel at $99.65.
Gold is up $5 an ounce at $1,737 an ounce.
This morning in the U.S. Market:
This week is a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, almost none. To see the full list
This morning’s report was that new weekly unemployment claims fell by 15,000 last week to 358,000. That was much better than the consensus forecast that claims would come in at 370,000. And the four-week moving averaged fell by 11,000 to 366,250.
It was also reported that officials in Greece have finally reached an agreement that meets the requirements for its bailout.
In reaction, the pre-open indicators have turned up from previously being fractionally negative to being fractionally positive, not as positive a reaction so far as might be expected.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 30 points or so in the early going.
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’
Note to non-Subscribers: We have updated the sample issue of Street Smart Report to a later issue you might find interesting. Click here to access it.Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter.
There is an in-depth ‘U.S. Markets’ update from yesterday, a hotline from last evening, and an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update from Monday in the subscribers’ area of the .
Would you like to improve on your investment returns? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, an in-depth 6-page ‘Global Markets’ update every three weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Sectors, stocks, bonds, gold, short-sales, long-side and inverse etf’s and mutual funds. Highly regarded and in its 25th year. subscription information.
I’ll be back Saturday morning with the regular Saturday morning post, as usual later than the week-day posts, probably around 11:00 a.m. eastern time. (This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!).
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07 Feb ' 11:27
Emerging Markets Are At An Important Juncture!
Tuesday, February 7, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
The stock market has been the place to be since October for sure. Climbing a classic wall of worry double–digit gains have been made in many global markets, economic recovery in the U.S. being the main driving force of the increasing optimism.
The U.S. economic recovery continues to pick up momentum, most recently evidenced by Friday’s surprisingly positive employment report.
And where previously the negative reports from Europe, particularly on the eurozone debt crisis, were dominating the headlines, with concerns the crisis would push Europe into a recession that would spread to the rest of the world, now we have the economic recovery in the U.S. becoming the dominant story in global headlines.
Focus is beginning to move from will Europe pull the rest of the world down, to can the U.S. economy pull the rest of the world up.
The market’s favorable season typically lasts until April or May. Our Seasonal Timing Strategy has sometimes not triggered its exit signal until June.
And the U.S. and many global markets have broken out impressively above their long-term 200-day moving averages, implying their bull markets have resumed after last summer’s substantial correction.
However, previous pessimistic and bearish investor sentiment began to turn more bullish when January did not bring the ‘crash’ and new bear market the doom and gloomers were predicting, instead becoming the best January in many years.
And the flood of money jumping in in January has many global markets looking short-term overbought, extended above 50-day moving averages to a degree that usually soon brings a pullback at least down to a retest of the support at the m.a.
But some global markets have lagged behind, leaving investors with a choice of chasing those leaders with strong relative strength that may be short-term overbought, or going with the laggards on hope they will play catch up.
For the most part, emerging markets fall into the latter category, just now seeming to move above 200-day moving averages, as they have gotten a lot of investor attention in January.
The contrast between the lack of buying in the first three months of the rally and the enthusiasm of the last few weeks is obvious.
Data provider EPFR Global reports that $11.3 billion has flowed into emerging market equity funds since January 1, and the pace has accelerated dramatically, with $3.5 billion of inflow just in the week ended Feb 1.
As a result short-term, emerging market equity funds have surged up 15% so far this year compared to the average global equity fund being up 8%.
So, investors need to think about whether, even though emerging markets have been lagging, still in the vicinity of their 200-day moving averages, they might also be potentially just as overbought short-term. The short-term charts seem to indicate that is the case.
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’
Note to non-Subscribers: We have updated the sample issue of Street Smart Report to a later issue you might find interesting. Click here to access it.Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter
The market closed down fractionally on very light volume.
closed down 17 points, or 0.2%. The closed down 0.1%. The closed down 0.2%. The closed down 0.1%. The closed down 0.1%. The closed down 0.3%. The closed down 0.7%. The
closed down $5 an ounce at $1,720 an ounce.
closed down $0.64 a barrel at $97.20 a barrel.
etf UUP closed up 0.1%.
etf TLT closed up 1.0%.
Markets in Europe also closed down fractionally yesterday. The closed down 0.2%. The closed down 0.1%. closed down 0.7%.
Asian Markets Were Mixed Sunday Night And Again Last Night.
The Asia Dow closed up 0.1% Sunday night, and up 0.4% last night.
Among individual markets last night:
closed down 1.7%. closed down 0.1%. closed down 0.5%. closed down 0.5%. closed down 0.1%. closed up 0.4%. closed up 0.6%.
are down again this morning. The FTSE is down 0.5%. is down 0.9%. is down 0.7%
is down $.40 a barrel at $96.52.
is up $4 an ounce at $1,725 an ounce.
This week is a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, almost none. To see the full list and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
And the 1st quarter earnings reporting period is just about over. That leaves the market with nothing to guide its intraday gyrations except re-analyzing what has already been reported regarding the economy and whatever turns up in global headlines, which right now is the return of difficulties in negotiations over the Greek bailout plans.
The pre-open indicators are looking soft this morning.
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 40 points or so in the early going.
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’ Click here.
Note to non-Subscribers: We have updated the sample issue of Street Smart Report to a later issue you might find interesting. Click here to access it.Sample issue of Street Smart Report newsletter.
There is an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ up date from yesterday in the subscribers’ area of the . And the in-depth mid-week U.S. Markets update will be there tomorrow.
Would you like to improve on your investment returns? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
I’ll be back Thursday morning with the regular Thursday morning post at 9:25 a.m. eastern time.
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04 Feb ' 10:39
Does Jobs Report Indicate the Fed is Behind the Curve–Again?
Saturday, February 4, 11:00 a.m.
As I have often written over the last 25 years, the Federal Reserve has a lousy record of almost always being woefully behind the reality curve at important turning points in economic cycles.
Is it adding another layer to that statistic in its current position, stated just last week in its FOMC statement, that it thinks the outlook for the economy is so negative it intends to keep the Fed Funds Rate at near zero “at least through late 2014”, rather than its previous target of mid-2013?
In its statement it noted that the Fed’s statutory mandate is to “foster maximum employment and price stability” and that it expects economic growth over coming quarters will only be “modest” and “the unemployment rate remains elevated”.
So it says it will keep interest rates near zero for almost two more years, and stands ready to provide further stimulus if needed “to promote a stronger economic recovery.”
If we get much more evidence of the quickening pace of the economic recovery, by late 2014 Fed Chairman Bernanke may instead be ducking brickbats of criticism that once again the Fed waited too long to raise rates to cool things off.
I’ve written in the past about the Fed’s long time record of being too late in raising rates to cool off the economy, resulting in the economy overheating and the stock market rising into bubbles, and equally late in cutting rates to prevent slowing economies from entering recessions. It takes so long for changes in policies to work their way down into the economy that it would have to foresee the future well in advance, and act early, in order not to be too late. And it has rarely been good at that.
For instance, the 1999 stock market bubble was the result of Fed action in the fall of 1998, when Asian and Latin American economies looked to be in trouble at the same time the U.S. stock market was down 19% in a correction. Even though then Fed Chairman Greenspan had made it clear he wanted some of the air let out of the stock market, the Greenspan Fed quickly cut interest rates and pumped money into the monetary system. Greenspan explained that the Fed did not think the world economy could handle a stock market collapse in Asia and Latin America and in the U.S. at the same time. The rate cuts had the desired effect of stopping the U.S. stock market’s decline in its track. In fact the stock market took off like a rocket, hitting new record highs and records of overvaluation in 1999, which resulted in the 2000-2002 bear market, the most severe since the 1929-32 crash.
The problem was that once the Asian worries were off its mind the Fed began raising interest rates again in 1999, but only slowly, 0.25% at a time, and did nothing about the excess liquidity it had pumped into the market in late 1998 in response to the Asian scare.
So a stock market bubble and resulting severe bear market.
In 2004 and 2005, the Fed kept the easy money policies it used to pull the economy out of the 2001-2002 recession in place far too long, creating a bubble in the housing market.
Then in 2007, just months before the 2003-2007 bull market rolled over into another severe bear market, that of 2007-2009, the Fed was behind the curve in the other direction again. By then it had raised interest rates in a belated reaction to the formation of the housing bubble, and kept the rates too tight too long because it did not realize the serious consequences to the economy that would come from the bursting of the housing bubble in 2006.
As I was writing at the time, and recent minutes from the Fed’s discussions in 2007 confirm, the Fed (and Wall Street, and the White House) were convinced the problem would be confined to the real estate sector. And even when the sub-prime mortgage market subsequently collapsed, it was still sure the problem would go no further into the economy.
Even when the Dow plunged 1,140 points in reaction to the collapse of Bear Stearns hedge funds, indicating the mortgage mess had spilled over into the rest of the financial sector, the Fed made only a token cut in the discount rate that troubled banks pay to borrow money from the Fed.
Only when the home sales numbers plunged further, and Wall Street began saying the Fed would have to respond, did the Fed become concerned enough to begin cutting interest rates to try to prevent the economy from slowing too much.
But again it was way behind the curve, with too little too late, and wound up having to cut rates to the current near zero level all the way down through what turned out to be ‘The Great Recession of 2007-2009.
So it is a legitimate question to ask if the Fed is again behind the curve in stating its intention to hold rates near zero until “at least late 2014”, while standing ready to provide another round of quantitative easing if necessary, even as the economy is in the third year of recovery from the great recession, and albeit still anemic, is picking up momentum at an unexpected pace.
I expect the Fed will have to begin raising rates well before the end of 2014 if it is not to fall behind the curve again.
No, no, no, I’m certainly not saying the economy is overheated or the stock market is in a a bubble. Just that it’s likely to become so if the Fed were to keep interest rates near zero until late 2014. And that the Fed announcing its new intensions to do so last week, even as the economic recovery is in its 3rd year and showing signs of picking up to more normal momentum, is an indication the Fed will continue its record of being behind the curve at important turning points, with the same unfortunate consequences as in the past. But that’s a problem for down the road.
By the way if you’d like to read what I was saying in 2007, click here, What Did They Really Say- August 31, 2007. There are some interesting quotes from Ben Bernanke at the time.
Is This An Overbought Market?
Our Seasonal Timing Strategy triggered its re-entry signal in mid-October and the market’s favorable seasonality traditionally continues until April or May, or even June before the exit signal is triggered.
Our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy remains on its buy signal of October but can give a sell signal at any time.
We are obviously in a bull market, and an intermediate-term rally within the bull market, and based on investor sentiment, with the resumption of the economic recovery finally being recognized by the majority.
But with the new found investor enthusiasm, and excitement on financial TV shows, is the market ahead of itself? Is this an overbought market above 50-day moving averages, especially in the small stock indexes that are the favorite playground of individual investors?
And if so, how should it be played within the longer-term picture?
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’
The latest issue of the newsletter is in the subscribers’ area of the from Wednesday. And there will be an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update there early next week.
A big rally day in reaction to the positive jobs report, on somewhat better volume. The Dow experienced its first triple-digit day in either direction since the first trading day of January.
closed up 156 points, or 1.2%. The closed up 1.5%. The closed up 1.6%. The closed up 1.6%. The closed up 1.3%. The closed up 2.2%. The closed up 1.2%. The
plunged a big $31 an ounce to $1,727, putting it down fractionally for the week.
closed up $1.35 a barrel at $97.71 a barrel.
U.S. dollar etf UUP closed unchanged.
But the U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT plunged 2.2% (our holding in the inverse bond etf closing up 2.1%).
European markets also closed up sharply yesterday. The FTSE closed up 1.8%. The closed up 1.7%. And
Global markets for the week.
Another positive week for most markets, markets, especially in Europe, continuing to demonstrate that markets (and technical indicators on market charts) are better forecasters of how ‘big picture’ fears will work out than are economists and the financial media, surging up as the eurozone crisis roiled all around them, at least in the headlines.
THIS WEEK (February 3) DJIA 12862 + 1.6% S&P 500 1344 + 2.1% NYSE 8060 + 2.3% NASDAQ 2905 + 3.2% NASD 100 2529 + 2.8% Russ 2000 831 + 4.0% DJTransprts 5368 + 0.4% DJ Utilities 451 + 0.8% XOI Oils 1,294 + 2.8% Gold bull. 1,725 - 0.8% GoldStcks 200 - 1.2% Canada 12577 + 0.9% London 5901 + 2.9% Germany 6766 + 3.9% 3427 + 3.3% 20756 + 1.2% 8831 - 0.1% 4320 - 0.6% S. Korea 1972 + 0.4% 17604 + 2.2% 4015 + 0.7% Brazil 65217 + 3.7% Mexico 38095 + 2.5% 2441 + 0.5% LAST WEEK (January 27) DJIA 12660 - 0.5% S&P 500 1316 + 0.1% NYSE 7876 + 0.6% NASDAQ 2816 + 1.1% NASD 100 2461 + 1.0% Russ 2000 799 + 1.8% DJTransprts 5344 + 1.2% DJ Utilities 448 - 0.1% XOI Oils 1,259 - 1.1% Gold bull. 1,738 + 4.3% GoldStcks 202 + 8.4% Canada 12466 + 0.6% London 5733 + 0.1% Germany 6511 + 1.7% France 3318 - 0.1% Hong Kong 20501 + 1.9% Japan 8841 + 0.9% Australia 4348 + 1.0% S. Korea 1964 + 0.8% India 17233 + 3.0% Indonesia 3986 unchgd Brazil 62904 + 1.0% Mexico 37184 - 0.5% China 2429 unchgd PREVIOUS WEEK (January 20) DJIA 12720 + 2.4% S&P 500 1315 + 2.0% NYSE 7829 + 2.6% NASDAQ 2786 + 2.8% NASD 100 2437 + 2.8% Russ 2000 784 + 2.7% DJTransprts 5280 + 2.0% DJ Utilities 449 - 0.5% XOI Oils 1,273 + 3.1% Gold bull. 1,666 + 1.7% GoldStcks 187 - 3.1% Canada 12397 + 1.4% London 5728 + 1.6% Germany 6404 + 4.2% France 3321 + 3.9% Hong Kong 20110 + 4.7% Japan 8766 + 3.1% Australia 4303 + 1.1% S. Korea 1949 + 4.0% India 16739 + 3.6% Indonesia 3986 + 1.3% Brazil 62312 + 5.4% Mexico 37384 + 2.3% China 2429 + 3.3% For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.
In the Premium Content section this morning: U.S. stock market, short-term and intermediate-term,. GOLD. BONDS.
Next week’s Economic Reports:
Next week will be a very light week for potential market-moving economic reports, almost none. To see the full listand look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
And the 1st quarter earnings reporting period is just about over. That will leave the market moving on what is already known from economic reports, and whatever turns up in global headlines.
‘Wow! The Economic Recovery Surprises Continue!’ Click here.
The latest issue of the newsletter is in the subscribers’ area of the from Wednesday. And there will be an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ update there early next week.
I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.
How are you doing? Isn’t it past time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings. And we are off to a great start this year.
Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds, two portfolios of recommended holdings (one modified buy and hold, and one market-timing). Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Highly regarded and in our 24th year. subscription information.
This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!
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02 Feb ' 17:04
Eurozone Crisis Fading From Headlines.
Thursday, February 2, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
The economy has been recovering from the Great Recession for three years now. And although it’s an anemic global recovery the U.S. has been leading the way. Meanwhile, in its three-year bull market from the 2009 low, the stock market has doubled in value. Justifiably, since S&P 500 earnings have increased 125% since the end of 2009, their fastest expansion in a quarter century. The result of that is, in spite of having doubled in value in the bull market, the S&P is selling at a lower P/E ratio than before the bull market began.
It must be a puzzle to the doom and gloomers who were so sure in 2008 that the bailout of banks and automakers, and massive stimulus efforts were not only going to fail to rescue the economy but would send the U.S. into the next Great Depression and plunge the stock market further, into oblivion.
In spite of those dire predictions falling by the wayside, the big picture theorists have remained just as gloomy even as the economic recovery has been picking up momentum and the stock market has been rallying impressively off its October low.
This time is was that the eurozone debt crisis of the last two years would produce the Armageddon catastrophe they expected in 2008 from the bailout efforts.
And now even that prospect seems to be fading away. At least the fears seem to be fading from the headlines.
I can’t find any references to the eurozone crisis at all in The Wall Street Journal Online this morning, let alone the types of dire headlines of a few weeks ago. It’s all about the upcoming elections, the Facebook IPO, corporate earnings, and so forth, a return to normal news items.
The only eurozone stories in The Financial Times this morning, and they are on back pages, have headlines like ‘Italy’s Banking Retrenchment Offers Signals of Rebound Hopes’, and ‘Portugal Vows to Hit Reform Targets’, and ‘Britain’s Best New Export is Lessons in Intelligent Fiscal Policy.’
It’s just not easy to try to forecast the direction of the economy or stock market, in either direction, with big picture analysis. As I have said so often over the years, by the time they are supposed to have played out conditions have almost always changed.
I’ll just continue to let the market itself tell us what it’s going to do through technical analysis of support/resistance levels, overbought/ oversold conditions, reversals of money flow, and so forth.
‘Let’s Not Get Too Optimistic’
The new issue of the newsletter is in the subscribers’ area of the from yesterday.
Almost made a new high. The Dow was up 152 points mid-day, but gave almost half of it back by the close, especially in the final minutes.
closed up 83 points, or 0.7%. The closed up 0.9%. The closed up 1.2%. The closed up 1.2%. The closed up 0.8%. The closed up 2.1%. The closed up 0.4%. The closed up 0.5%.
closed up $7 an ounce at $1,747 an ounce.
closed down $1.13 a barrel at $97.35 a barrel.
U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed down 0.5%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down 1.4%.
Markets in Europe closed sharply higher yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 1.9%. The closed up 2.4%. closed up 2.1%.
Asian Markets Were Positive Last Night.
The Asia Dow closed up 1.0%.
Among individual markets:
closed up 1.0%. closed up 2.0%. closed up 2.0%. closed up 0.8%. closed up 1.3%. closed up 0.8%. Malaysia closed up 1.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.4%. South Korea closed up 1.3%. Singapore closed down 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 1.4%. Thailand closed up 0.5%.
For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access click on the ‘Subscribe’ link below which will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report.
Markets This Morning.
European markets are mixed with only fractional moves this morning. The FTSE is down 0.2%. Germany’s DAX is up 0.1%. is up 0.2%
Oil is down $.13 a barrel at $97.22.
Gold is up $2 an ounce at $1,749 an ounce.
This morning in the U.S. Market:
This is a very heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Chicago PMI, ADP Jobs Report, ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, and the Labor Department’s Employment Report for January. To see the full list
Monday’s report was that U.S. Incomes were up an unexpected 0.5% in December, and Spending declined 0.1%, as savings rose 0.4%.
Tuesday it was the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which showed that home prices fell 1.3% in November from October’s level. And the Chicago PMI dropped to 60.2 in January from 62.2 in December. And Consumer Confidence fell to 61.1 in January from 64.8 in December.
Yesterday it was the ADP Employment Report, which showed 170,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in January. And the number for December was revised down from the previously reported 325,000 to 292,000. And the national ISM Mfg Index rose to 54.1 in January from 53.1 in November, not quite as positive as the consensus forecast of an improvement to 54.5. But Construction Spending increased 1.5% in December, much better than the consensus forecast of a an increase of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the big-three automakers mostly reported positive sales gains in January, Chrysler a 44% increase over January a year ago, in its best January in four years, Ford sales were up 7% over a year ago. But GM reported its sales were down 6% from January of last year.
This morning’s reports were that new weekly unemployment claims fell by by 12,000 last week, to 367,000. The more important four-week moving average, which smooths out the weekly gyrations, fell by 2,000 to 375,750. But the Challenger, Gray, & Christmas Lay-off Report was that U.S. companies announced planned layoffs in January surged to its highest level in four months. Meanwhile, the Labor Department Productivity Report showed that productivity in U.S. factories was up 0.7% in the 4th quarter, about in line with the consensus forecast.
The pre-open indicators hade been fractionally negative but turned fractionally positive after the claims report.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 15 points or so in the early going.
‘Let’s Not Get Too Optimistic’
The new issue of the newsletter is in the subscribers’ area of the from yesterday.
Past the time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year)when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, an in-depth 6-page ‘Global Markets’ update every three weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Sectors, stocks, bonds, gold, short-sales, long-side and inverse etf’s and mutual funds. Highly regarded and in its 25th year. subscription information.
I’ll be back Saturday morning with the regular Saturday morning post, as usual later than the week-day reports, probably around 11 a.m. eastern time. (This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!).
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31 Jan ' 15:00
Greek Debt Fears Decline – But!
Tuesday, January 31, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
Greek Prime Minister Papademos says “significant progress” has been made in negotiations with holders of Greek bonds on the restructuring deal for government debt, and he expects an agreement by the end of the week.
An agreement is necessary if Greece is to get the next payment of bailout money it needs to avoid a default on its bonds coming due in March.
Unfortunately, it’s now feared that markets are shoving Portugal down the same path taken by Greece, with the yield on Portugal’s 10-year bond rising to a new euro-era record yesterday.
Meanwhile, economic reports from Europe include that retail sales in Germany fell unexpectedly in December, as did consumer spending in France.
And major European banks indicate that in February they will probably tap the European Central Bank’s new emergency funding program for double the amount they borrowed in January, the program’s first month of providing unlimited, low interest, three-year loans to banks. It’s being taken as another sign of the liquidity pressures on European banks.
So it continues to be a case of if only we could ignore Europe.
What happened to the volatility?
The market experienced its best January in years, with the Dow gaining 3.6% for the month to yesterday’s close with only one more day to go, and rising steadily through the month, not even a brief setback.
It was as smooth as October, the first month of the rally, although not matching October’s gain of 9.5%.
And January was such a relaxing month to be in the market. Volatility virtually disappeared. The Dow had only one triple-digit day in January, and that was 179 points to the upside on the first trading day of the month.
‘Let’s Not Get Too Optimistic’
The new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow , available in the subscribers’ area of the .
The market closed off lows, down only fractionally, on low volume of 0.7 billion shares traded on the NYSE.
closed down 6 points, or 0.1%. The closed down 0.3%. The closed down 0.5%. The closed down 0.2%. The closed up 0.1%. The closed down 0.8%. The closed down 0.4%. The closed down 0.3%.
closed down $8 an ounce at $1,731 an ounce.
closed down $0.78 a barrel at $98.78 a barrel.
The U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed up 0.4%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 1.2%.
Markets in Europe closed down yesterday. The closed down 1.1%. The closed down 1.0%. closed down 1.6%.
Asian Markets Were Down Sunday Night But Mixed Last Night.
The Asia Dow closed down 0.9% Sunday night, and up 0.8% last night.
Among individual markets last night:
closed up 1.1%. closed up 2.0%. closed down 0.2%. closed down 0.3%. closed up 0.8%. closed up 1.5%.
In the Premium Content area this morning: U.S. market, short-term and intermediate-term.
are back up this morning. The FTSE is up 0.8%. is up 1.1%. is up 1.5%
is up $1.46 a barrel at $100.24.
is up $13 an ounce at $1,744 an ounce.
This is a very heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Chicago PMI, ADP Jobs Report, ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, and the Labor Department’s Employment Report for January. To see the full list , and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.To see the full list click here
Yesterday’s report was that U.S. Incomes were up an unexpected 0.5% in December, and Spending declined by 0.1%, as savings rose 0.4%.
This morning it was reported (Case-Shiller Home Price Index) that home prices fell 1.3% in November from October’s level.
Still to come are the Chicago PMI, which will be released at 9:45am. and Consumer Confidence at 10 a.m.
The pre-open indicators are looking quite calm again this morning.
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 50 points or so in the early going.
‘Let’s Not Get Too Optimistic’
The new issue of the newsletter will be out tomorrow , available in the subscribers’ area of the.
Past the time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
I’ll be back Thursday morning with the regular Thursday morning post at 9:25 a.m. eastern time.
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28 Jan ' 18:45
Gold Is Still Good!
Saturday, January 28, 11:30 a.m.
Gold spiked up to new record highs in September which had the cheerleaders on financial TV excited about gold again, sure that $2,000 gold was just days away.
But I said not so fast, and warned it was short-term overbought above its important 30-week m.a. again, and our momentum indicators were indicating it was due for a pullback at least sufficient to retest the support at that m.a., which would be a decline of $200 an ounce or so.
It did pull back to the m.a., and when it seemed to successfully find support at the m.a. again I issued another buy signal to subscribers in October.
But I was early and gold declined again to the m.a. and then plunged below it for the first time since 2008, which certainly got our attention.
But we stayed with the buy signal.
As I showed you in this free section of the blog, the 30-week m.a. itself was still rising, and the decline was hardly a blip in the long-term secular bull market for gold (next chart) that began in 2001 (when the stock market entered its secular bear market).
And our technical indicators had remained on the buy signal,
I said the key would be when gold attempted to rally again. Would it fail at the m.a., potentially establishing the m.a. as overhead resistance for a further decline, or would it be able to break back above the 30-week m.a. again, which would signal its bull market was intact.
Meanwhile, the short-term technical indicators did a pretty good job of foretelling the short-term gyrations from short-term oversold to short-term overbought that were keeping investors nervous.
And now in its $200 rally back from $1,538 to $1,738 gold has broken back above its important 30-week m.a. again (top chart), indicating its long-term bull market is intact.
At some point a brief pullback to the m.a. and successful test to confirm the support there for resumption of the bull market would be good to see.
Conservation of Capital Still of Most Importance.
In writing my newspaper column yesterday I got into a couple of Warren Buffett’s famous quotes about not following the crowd.
As I noted in both of my books, it’s probably the most important requirement for long-term investing success not to let the ‘crowd’ bearishness at market lows and excess optimism at market tops overcome your own observations and ability to read the signs and indicators.
But it’s also probably the most difficult requirement, to be bullish when all about you are bearish, or to be cautious when all about you have become euphoric and confident, and even more difficult to identify when the sentiment has reached a dangerous level, because it varies from cycle to cycle.
The use of technical analysis to identify potential overbought or oversold conditions, potential support and resistance levels, potential money-flow or momentum reversals, recognition of where the market is within its dominant seasonal tendencies (monthly, annual, cycle-wise), etc., sure does help.
But even then there is still the important question of how to apply risk management.
With intermediate or longer-term sell signals there’s no question in my opinion. Take profits and position for downside gains in ‘inverse’ etf’s or short-sales.
But is it wise to lighten up when all you expect is a short-term pullback of 5 or 6% and then a resumption of the upside, or better to simply hold through whatever comes along, risking that it could turn into something worse?
The market went nowhere last year on a buy and hold basis. The S&P 500 flat for the year, the Nasdaq down 2%. Those who made gains for the year did so by periodically taking profits. Okay, let’s say the naughty words, by engaging to a degree in shorter-term trading, not only in the stock market but in bonds and gold.
The volatility of this market and the potential stumbling blocks at some point ahead from global debt risks and the anemic economic recovery, also need to be considered.
This is not a 1990’s style secular bull market supported by government budget surpluses, and a surging economy.
But we have another quote from Warren Buffett, this one in regard to taking risk. Several years ago he said, (probably at one of the times when his holding company was down double-digits and investors were bailing out on him) “If you can’t handle your portfolio periodically being down 50% you probably shouldn’t be investing in the stock market.”
That statement just blew my mind. A multi-billionaire might be able to remain calm when his portfolio has lost 50% of its value. It doesn’t inflict any damage on his standard of living unless the remaining $25 billion is not enough to live on.
But the statement also reflects on the $multi-billion size of each of his holdings and the fact that he doesn’t have the flexibility most of us have of being able to move in and out of risk with a simple phone call or a couple of computer clicks.
Our Seasonal Timing Strategy has a long-term record of handling the volatility and risk management decisions the easiest way, by simply being in the market in its favorable season when it’s most likely to make gains, and out in its unfavorable season when it’s most likely to have corrections. It was up 15.8% last year, and its worst annual loss was 4.2%. Click here to see its 13-year record since being introduced.
But for those not following a seasonal strategy but a strategy of diversification across a mix of holdings, like our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy, as I noted in my newspaper column yesterday, it might be time to make one of those short-term risk management decisions.
‘Let’s Not Get Too
There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update in the subscribers’ area of the from Thursday. The new issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.
Yesterday in the U.S. Market.
A down day for blue chips, up-day for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000.
The Dow closed down 74 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 closed down 0.2%. The NYSE Composite closed down 0.1%. The NasdaqNasdaq 100 closed up 0.3%. The Russell 2000 closed up 0.7%. The DJ Transportation Avg. closed up 0.8%. The DJ Utilities Avg closed down 1.3%.
closed up $10 an ounce at $1,738.
closed down $0.03 a barrel at $99.67 a barrel.
The U.S. dollar etf UUP closed down 0.7%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed up 0.3%.
European markets closed down. The FTSE closed down 1.1%. The closed down 0.4%. And closed down 1.3%.
Global markets for the week.
Another positive week for most markets.
THIS WEEK (January 27) DJIA 12660 - 0.5% S&P 500 1316 + 0.1% NYSE 7876 + 0.6% NASDAQ 2816 + 1.1% NASD 100 2461 + 1.0% Russ 2000 799 + 1.8% DJTransprts 5344 + 1.2% DJ Utilities 448 - 0.1% XOI Oils 1,259 - 1.1% Gold bull. 1,738 + 4.3% GoldStcks 202 + 8.4% Canada 12466 + 0.6% London 5733 + 0.1% Germany 6511 + 1.7% France 3318 - 0.1% 20501 + 1.9% 8841 + 0.9% 4348 + 1.0% S. Korea 1964 + 0.8% 17233 + 3.0% 3986 unchgd Brazil 62904 + 1.0% Mexico 37184 - 0.5% 2429 unchgd LAST WEEK (January 20) DJIA 12720 + 2.4% S&P 500 1315 + 2.0% NYSE 7829 + 2.6% NASDAQ 2786 + 2.8% NASD 100 2437 + 2.8% Russ 2000 784 + 2.7% DJTransprts 5280 + 2.0% DJ Utilities 449 - 0.5% XOI Oils 1,273 + 3.1% Gold bull. 1,666 + 1.7% GoldStcks 187 - 3.1% Canada 12397 + 1.4% London 5728 + 1.6% Germany 6404 + 4.2% France 3321 + 3.9% Hong Kong 20110 + 4.7% Japan 8766 + 3.1% Australia 4303 + 1.1% S. Korea 1949 + 4.0% India 16739 + 3.6% Indonesia 3986 + 1.3% Brazil 62312 + 5.4% Mexico 37384 + 2.3% China 2429 + 3.3% PREVIOUS WEEK (January 13) DJIA 12422 + 0.5% S&P 500 1289 + 0.9% NYSE 7632 + 1.0% NASDAQ 2710 + 1.4% NASD 100 2371 + 0.6% Russ 2000 764 + 1.9% DJTransprts 5175 + 2.1% DJ Utilities 451 - 0.1% XOI Oils 1,235 - 1.0% Gold bull. 1,639 + 1.4% GoldStcks 193 + 3.1% Canada 12231 + 0.4% London 5636 - 0.2% Germany 6143 + 1.4% France 3196 + 1.9% Hong Kong 19204 + 3.3% Japan 8500 + 1.3% Australia 4255 + 2.2% S. Korea 1875 + 1.7% India 16154 + 1.8% Indonesia 3935 + 1.7% Brazil 59146 + 0.9% Mexico 36544 - 0.7% China 2351 + 3.8% For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.
Next week’s Economic Reports:
Next week will be a very heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Chicago PMI, ADP Jobs Report, ISM Mfg Index, Factory Orders, and the Labor Department’s Employment Report for January. To see the full list, and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
‘Let’s Not Get Too
There is an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update in the subscribers’ area of the from Thursday. The new issue of the newsletter will be out on Wednesday.
I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.
How are you doing? Time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings. And we are off to a great start this year.
Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds, two portfolios of recommended holdings (one modified buy and hold, and one market-timing). Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Highly regarded and in our 24th year.
This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!
-
26 Jan ' 21:07
U.S. Treasury Bonds Still Looking Toppy!
Thursday, January 26, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
That bonds did not react positively to the Fed’s statement yesterday that it will be holding interest rates low for even longer than it had previously been indicating, was yet another sign that U.S. treasury bonds have been topping out.
They also did not react when talks on the Greek debt crisis failed several times in recent weeks, apparently having more than factored in the potential negatives from the eurozone crisis, leaving them vulnerable to any improvement at all in the outlook.
Global Market Gains Have Been Impressive!
The eurozone fears that kept many out of the market after the October low, sure that catastrophe was right around the corner, and then the many forecasts that last summer’s correction was the beginning of the next bear market, which would be proven when the rally failed at 200-day moving averages, have been fading away.
This week’s AAII investor sentiment poll, released last night, showed the reversal since the high level of fear and bearishness at the October low and for some weeks thereafter.
It showed the percentage of bullishness this week at 48.4% while those bearish fell by 4.7 to just 18.9%.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’ Click here.
The mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update is in the subscribers’ area of the from yesterday. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there later today.
The market closed positive and at new highs for the rally.
closed up 81 points, or 0.6%. The closed up 0.7%. The closed up 1.0%. The closed up 1.1%. The closed up 1.3%. The closed up 0.9%. The closed up 1.5%. The closed up 1.6%.
surged up $40 an ounce, closing at $1,707 an ounce.
closed up $.79 a barrel at $99.74 a barrel.
U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed down 0.5%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down another 0.2%.
Markets in Europe closed mixed yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.1%. closed down 0.3%.
Asian Markets Except Japan Closed up Last Night.
The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed up 0.9%.
Among individual markets:
closed up 1.0%. closed up 1.6%. closed up 0.5%. closed up 0.5%. closed down 0.4%. Malaysia closed up 0.5%. New Zealand closed up 0.1%. South Korea closed up 0.3%. Singapore closed up 0.1%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 1.2%.
For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access click on the ‘Subscribe’ link below which will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report.
In the Premium Content area this morning: U.S. market, & Gold.
Markets This Morning.
European markets are up strongly this morning. The FTSE is up 1.4%. Germany’s DAX is up 1.7%. is up 1.5%
Oil is up $1.43 a barrel at $100.83.
Gold is up $16 an ounce at $1,723 an ounce.
This morning in the U.S. Market:
This is a fairly heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports, including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and another revision to 4th quarter GDP growth. To see the full list , and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
There were no reports Monday or Tuesday.
Yesterday’s reports were a mix of positive and negative. The FHFA reported home prices rose 1% in November, and year over year were down only 1.8%. But the NAR reported that Pending Home Sales declined 3.5% in December – but that was after they hit a 19-month high in November.
This morning’s reports so far are that new weekly unemployment claims increased by 21,000 last week to 377,000, about in line with the consensus estimate. The four-week m.a. fell slightly by 2,500 to 377,500. And Durable Goods Orders were up 3.0% in December, the 3rd straight monthly increase, and better than the consensus forecast of an increase of 2.4%.
Still to come are New Home Sales, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators, both of which will be released at 10 a.m.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being up 60 points or so in the early going.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’
The mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update is in the subscribers’ area of the , from yesterday. There will be an in-depth ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar, Inflation’ update there later today.
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year)when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. It was enough to have us on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
And our STS portfolio is up 4.6%, and our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy portfolio up 6.5%, for this year so far, and still holding 40% in cash for our next decisions.
Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, an in-depth 6-page ‘Global Markets’ update every three weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Sectors, stocks, bonds, gold, short-sales, long-side and inverse etf’s and mutual funds. Highly regarded and in its 25th year. subscription information.
I’ll be back Saturday morning with the regular Saturday morning post, as usual later than the week day posts, probably around 11 a.m. eastern time. (This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!).
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24 Jan ' 18:07
Gold is Technically at an Important Juncture!
Tuesday, January 24, 2012. 9.35 a.m.
Last September gold topped out into what became an intermediate-term correction in which it broke beneath the important support at its 30-week moving average for the first time since 2008.
But in the correction it has twice become oversold short-term beneath its important short-term 30-day m.a. (next chart). And that resulted in two short-term oversold rallies, and the current rally has carried gold back up to its 30-week m.a. (top chart).
Will it be able to break back above the 30-week m.a. and have it become support again for gold’s bull market to continue?
The importance of the juncture at the 30-week m.a. can also be seen in the pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the short-term chart since the September high.
My apologies but I’m working on tomorrow’s mid-week markets update for subscribers and that’s all I have time for this morning.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’ Click here.
There is a hotline update from Saturday morning in the subscribers’ area of the , and the mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update will be on sometime tomorrow.
The market closed mixed with only fractional changes yesterday.
closed down 11 points, or 0.1%. The closed up 0.1%. The closed down 0.8%. The closed up 0.3%.
closed up $13 an ounce at $1,677 an ounce.
closed up $1.56 a barrel at $99.58 a barrel.
U.S. Dollar etf UUP closed down 0.6%.
The U.S. Treasury bond etf TLT closed down another 0.6%.
Markets in Europe closed up yesterday. The closed up 0.9%. The closed up 0.5%. closed up 0.5%.
Asian Markets Closed up Last Night.
closed up 0.8%. closed up 1.5%. closed up 0.2%. closed up 0.4%. New Zealand closed down 0.8%. closed up 1.8%. closed up 1.4%. closed up 0.2%.
In the Premium Content area this morning: U.S. market, short-term and intermediate-term.
are down this morning. The FTSE is down 0.8%. is down 1.1%. is down 1.1%
is down $0.40 a barrel at $99.18.
is down $11 an ounce at $1,666 an ounce.
This is a fairly heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and another revision to 4th quarter GDP growth, but beginning tomorrow. To see the full list
There were no reports yesterday, nor this morning.
The .
Our pre-open indicators are pointing to the Dow being down 50 points or so in the early going.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’
There is a hotline update from Saturday morning in the subscribers’ area of the , and the mid-week ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update will be there sometime tomorrow.
Non-subscribers:Time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year)when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
I’ll be back Thursday morning with the regular Thursday morning post at 9:25 a.m. eastern time.
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21 Jan ' 12:34
Strongest January In Years for Stock Market So Far!
Saturday, January 21, 10:30 a.m.
Investors may have still been pulling money out of the market last year, three years into the new bull market. The participation in the current leg up from the October low may have been sparse, at least based on trading volume.
But those who have been participating have been having quite ride, with the market rumbling over the rough patches in the road, climbing walls of worry, closing at yet another new rally high yesterday.
In the process the S&P 500 is up another 4.7% in just the first three weeks of the new year, the strongest start to a new year in 25 years, and now up 21% from the October low.
Many of those who disbelieved the rally and missed out are now negative on its chances of continuing due to the rise in bullish investor sentiment.
And there’s no doubt sentiment has reversed from the high level of fear and bearishness at the October low to a significant level of bullishness and confidence.
But has it reached the extreme level of bullishness and lack of fear usually seen at rally tops?
Possibly, but perhaps not, according to the VIX Index, also known as the Fear Index. It shows fear has been declining sharply as the rally got underway. And it has now dropped into the upper line of the warning zone where previous rallies have ended. But it still has a ways to go before reaching the lows more common at rally tops, and it can sometimes stay at those low levels while the rally continues for several more months.
And the market is not terribly overbought on an intermediate-term basis, for instance above 20-week moving averages.
And the S&P has broken out of its triangle formation to the upside, which often indicates its next direction for awhile.
But it’s never that easy.
Investor sentiment is showing low enough levels of fear to result in at least a short-term pullback. And the market is short-term overbought enough, for instance above 50-day moving averages, to result in a pullback from that overbought condition.
And therein will lie the next dilemma for investors and traders.
Remain fully invested in expectation that a short-term pullback would be brief and the intermediate-term rally will resume to the end of the market’s favorable season in April or May? Or take profits temporarily with the plan of getting back in at lower prices and making some of the gains all over again? Or sell short on expectation that the rally is over and a significant correction lies ahead?
It is a decision that should be made in advance. It’s always difficult to make a reasoned decision after a pull back has begun.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’
There is a hotline update from this morning in the subscribers’ area of the , as well as an in-depth ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update from Wednesday, and an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ report from Tuesday.
A mixed day, on somewhat heavier volume, with just over 0.9 billion shares traded on the NYSE. But the extra volume was undoubtedly all due to the options expirations.
The blue chips of the Dow masked some hesitancy in the rest of the market going into the weekend.
closed up 96 points, or 0.8%. The closed up 0.1%. The closed down 0.1%. The closed up 0.3%. The closed down 0.4%. The
closed up $12 an ounce at $1,669.
closed down $2.19 a barrel at $98.20 a barrel.
etf UUP closed up 0.1%.
closed down 1.1%.
After four straight positive days, European markets closed down fractionally yesterday. The FTSE closed down 0.2%. The closed down 0.2%. And
Global markets for the week.
Yet another positive week.
THIS WEEK (January 13) DJIA 12720 + 2.4% S&P 500 1315 + 2.0% NYSE 7829 + 2.6% NASDAQ 2786 + 2.8% NASD 100 2437 + 2.8% Russ 2000 784 + 2.7% DJTransprts 5280 + 2.0% DJ Utilities 448 - 0.5% XOI Oils 1,273 + 3.1% Gold bull. 1,666 + 1.7% GoldStcks 187 - 3.1% Canada 12397 + 1.4% London 5728 + 1.6% Germany 6404 + 4.2% 3321 + 3.9% 20110 + 4.7% 8766 + 3.1% 4303 + 1.1% S. Korea 1949 + 4.0% 16739 + 3.6% 3986 + 1.3% Brazil 62312 + 5.4% Mexico 37384 + 2.3% 2429 + 3.3% THIS WEEK (January 13) DJIA 12422 + 0.5% S&P 500 1289 + 0.9% NYSE 7632 + 1.0% NASDAQ 2710 + 1.4% NASD 100 2371 + 0.6% Russ 2000 764 + 1.9% DJTransprts 5175 + 2.1% DJ Utilities 451 - 0.1% XOI Oils 1,235 - 1.0% Gold bull. 1,639 + 1.4% GoldStcks 193 + 3.1% Canada 12231 + 0.4% London 5636 - 0.2% Germany 6143 + 1.4% France 3196 + 1.9% Hong Kong 19204 + 3.3% Japan 8500 + 1.3% Australia 4255 + 2.2% S. Korea 1875 + 1.7% India 16154 + 1.8% Indonesia 3935 + 1.7% Brazil 59146 + 0.9% Mexico 36544 - 0.7% China 2351 + 3.8% LAST WEEK (January 6) DJIA 12359 + 1.2% S&P 500 1277 + 1.6% NYSE 7557 + 1.1% NASDAQ 2674 + 2.7% NASD 100 2356 + 3.5% Russ 2000 749 + 1.2% DJTransprts 5069 + 1.0% DJ Utilities 452 - 2.9% XOI Oils 1,247 + 1.5% Gold bull. 1,617 + 3.4% GoldStcks 187 + 3.6% Canada 12188 +1.9% London 5649 + 1.4% Germany 6057 + 2.7% France 3137 - 0.7% Hong Kong 18593 + 0.9% Japan 8390 - 0.8% Australia 4164 + 1.3% S. Korea 1843 + 1.0% India 15867 + 2.7% Indonesia 3869 + 1.3% Brazil 58600 + 3.3% Mexico 36804 - 0.7% China 2266 - 1.7% For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in the newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access please click on the ‘Subscribe’ link. It will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report, a subscription to which includes access to the premium content area of this Street Smart Post blog.
Next week’s Economic Reports:
Next week will be a fairly heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and another revision to 4th quarter GDP growth. To see the full list , and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
‘The U.S. Recovery Is Producing Surprises’
There is a hotline update from this morning in the subscribers’ area of the , as well as an in-depth ‘Signals & Recommendations on the U.S. Market’ update from Wednesday, and an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ report from Tuesday.
I’ll be back with the next regular blog post on Tuesday morning at 9:25 a.m.
Non-subscribers: Time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings. And we are off to a great start this year.
Market, sector, stock, gold, bond, and dollar buy and sell signals, short-sales, long-side and ‘inverse’ etf’s, mutual funds, two portfolios of recommended holdings (one modified buy and hold, and one market-timing). Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Highly regarded and in our 24th year.
This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!
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19 Jan ' 12:06
Breakouts Above 200-Day Moving Averages Confirmed?
Thursday, January 19, 2012. 9.25 a.m.
The big worry among market technicians has been whether the U.S. market would find the 200-day m.a. to be overhead resistance that would end the rally. Failure at the 200-day might mean the summer correction was the first leg down in a new bear market, and the rally off the October low was just a bear market rally, doomed to fail and bring on the next leg down.
But so far anyway the major indexes have broken out above their 200-day m.a.’s and while it isn’t a clear break out, it seems to be increasingly confirmed.
But just as investors begin to gain confidence in the rally, the market has again become short-term overbought above short-term moving averages to a degree that could soon bring a pullback that will bring back the worries.
We’ll be watching our technical indicators for that possibility, and to determine whether we should take some of our profits from the rally.
My apologies but I’m travelling this morning and that’s all I have time for.
‘Brazil Looks Like A Buying Opportunity Again’
The Mid-Week in-depth ‘Signals and Recommendations’ report on the U.S. market is in the subscribers’ area of the from yesterday, and a hotline from last evening. There is also an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ report from Tuesday.
The market closed up again.
closed up 96 points, or 0.8%. The closed up 1.1%. The closed up 1.3%. The closed up 1.5%. The closed up 1.4%. The closed up 1.8%. The closed up 1.0%. The closed up 0.1%.
closed up $10 an ounce at $1,659 an ounce.
closed up $0.93 a barrel at $101.52 a barrel.
closed down 1.2%.
Markets in Europe closed up fractionally mixed yesterday. The London FTSE closed up 0.3%.
Asian Markets Closed up Last Night.
The DJ Asia-Pacific Index closed up 0.9%.
Among individual markets:
closed down 0.1%. closed up 1.7%. closed up 1.3%. closed up 1.2%. closed up 0.6%. closed up 1.0%. Malaysia closed up 0.1%. New Zealand closed up 0.5%. South Korea closed up 1.2%. Singapore closed up 0.6%. Taiwan closed up 0.2%. Thailand closed up 0.7%.
For Street Smart Report subscribers only, used to provide additional info to that provided in newsletter, mid-week reports, and hotlines.
To obtain access click on the ‘Subscribe’ link below which will take you to an information page on subscribing to Street Smart Report.
Markets This Morning.
European markets are up this morning. The FTSE is up 0.5%. Germany’s DAX is up 0.8%. is up 1.8%
Oil is up $1.00 a barrel at $101.63.
Gold is up $1 an ounce at $1,660 an ounce.
This morning in the U.S. Market:
This is a quite heavy week for potential market-moving economic reports including the Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index, New Housing Starts, and Existing Home Sales. To see the full list , and look at the left side of the page it takes you to.
Tuesday’s report was that the Empire State (NY) Mfg Index jumped to 13.5 in January, better than forecasts of a rise to 11.3, and its highest level in 9 months.
Yesterday it was that inflation remains tame in the U.S., with the Producer Price Index declining 0.1% in December versus the consensus forecast of an increase of 0.1%. And Industrial Output was up 0.4% in December in line with the consensus forecast. And the NAHB Housing Market Index measuring home-builder optimism rose 4 points to 25, much better than forecasts, the 4th monthly increase in a row.
This morning’s reports are that weekly unemployment claims plunged by 50,000 last week to 352,000, the lowest level since April, 2008. The four-week moving average declined to 379,000. And inflation at the consumer level also remains tame, with the Consumer Price Index coming in unchanged in December.
The disappointing report was that new housing starts declined by 4.1% in December, but that comes after an unusual surge of 9.1% in November.
Our Pre-Open Indicators:
Our pre-open indicators are now pointing to the Dow being up 50 points or so in the early going.
‘Brazil Looks Like A Buying Opportunity Again’
The Mid-Week in-depth ‘Signals and Recommendations’ report on the U.S. market is in the subscribers’ area of the from yesterday, and a hotline from last evening. There is also an in-depth ‘Global Markets’ report from Tuesday.
Time for a New Year’s resolution to improve on your investment returns in 2012? We believe we can help, and at very reasonable cost!
Our portfolios were up an average of 9.4% last year, our Seasonal Timing Strategy up 15.8%, in a flat year (S&P 500 unchanged for year) when many, if not most, managers and funds were down for the year. We were on Hulbert’s Ten Best Newsletters of the Year list for the 2nd time in 4 years, and #4 Long-Term Market-Timer in Timer Digest’s rankings.
Street Smart Report Online provides an 8-page newsletter every 3 weeks, an in-depth 6 page interim update every Wednesday on our intermediate-term signals and recommended holdings, an in-depth 4-page ‘Gold, Bonds, Dollar’ update every 2 weeks, an in-depth 6-page ‘Global Markets’ update every three weeks, and special reports and hotline updates as needed. Sectors, stocks, bonds, gold, short-sales, long-side and inverse etf’s and mutual funds. Highly regarded and in its 25th year.
I’ll be back Saturday morning with the regular Saturday morning post, as usual later than the weekday posts, probably around 11 a.m. eastern time. (This blog appears every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday morning!).
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